Mets vs Cubs Series Preview April 17-19 2026

The Mets head into Chicago on Friday, April 17, carrying a 7-12 record, an eight-game losing streak, and an offense that has spent too many nights looking like it’s swinging underwater. The Cubs are sitting at 9-9 and have been the better run-scoring club so far, averaging 5.22 runs per game compared with the Mets’ 3.42. That’s not a small gap. That’s a “one lineup looks functional and the other keeps trying to solve baseball with vibes” gap.

This series matters because the Mets do not need another “it’s still early” speech. They need better at-bats, better sequencing, and a few guys in the middle of the order to stop trying to hit a five-run homer with nobody on base. Chicago is not a perfect team, but right now the Cubs are deeper, healthier on the position-player side, and coming in with a lot more offensive life.

What the hell is wrong with the Mets’ offense?

The biggest issue is not bad luck alone. The Mets are chasing too much, especially when the inning starts to tighten up. Their overall chase rate is 32.5%, and with runners in scoring position it jumps to 35.7%. That is a killer. That is how rallies turn into two-pitch outs and dugout shots of guys staring into the middle distance like they just got bad news from a plumber.

The numbers also show the lineup has a few bright spots and a whole lot of underperformance. Francisco Alvarez has been the best version of himself so far, posting a .412 wOBA, .459 xwOBA, 48.6% hard-hit rate, and 21.6% barrel rate. Luis Robert Jr. has also been productive enough to matter, with a .338 wOBA, .353 xwOBA, and 42.9% hard-hit rate. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Mets have gotten cold production from too many important bats at once. Bo Bichette sits at a .262 wOBA and .305 xwOBA. Marcus Semien is at .244 and .285. Jorge Polanco is at .246 and .271. Carson Benge is at .222 and .280. When that many key bats are underwater at the same time, the whole thing starts to feel like a lineup made of spare parts and frustration.

That said, this is where the preview gets interesting. Alvarez’s underlying contact quality is loud. Robert’s isn’t empty either. Bichette’s gap between wOBA and xwOBA suggests there’s still some room for correction. Benge’s expected line is also better than the actual one. So no, I’m not ready to call the entire offense cooked. But I am saying the Mets need to stop helping pitchers. The chase, the expanding, the rushing through big spots, that crap has to stop now.

Why the Cubs are a problem in this series

Chicago’s offense has been more layered than the Mets’. The Cubs entered this series with nine hitters performing above league average, and over their last four games they scored 35 runs on 51 hits. Nico Hoerner just hung a five-RBI game on the Phillies. Dansby Swanson has been hitting the ball hard all year, carrying a 54.8% hard-hit rate and .351 xwOBA. Carson Kelly has been absurd early, with a .420 wOBA, .426 xwOBA, 62.2% hard-hit rate, and 95.2 mph average exit velocity. Moisés Ballesteros has also been smoking baseballs, posting a .398 wOBA, .356 xwOBA, 60.0% hard-hit rate, and 16.7% barrel rate. In other words, this is not a lineup you beat by donating free counts and hoping the wind changes.

The Cubs do have a couple soft spots. Michael Busch has opened slowly with a .216 wOBA, .248 xwOBA, and just a 29.2% hard-hit rate. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s batted-ball quality is decent, but the actual production still hasn’t matched the tools, with a .261 wOBA and .247 xwOBA. So there are outs in this lineup. The problem for the Mets is that Chicago has fewer dead spots and more guys who can keep an inning moving.

Pitching matchups, game by game

Game 1: Kodai Senga vs. Edward Cabrera
This one feels like chaos with a dress shirt on. Senga comes in with a 7.07 ERA, but the matchup data against the current Cubs roster is encouraging: Chicago hitters have batted just .214 against him with a .295 xwOBA and a 34.4% strikeout rate. Cabrera has been nasty early, carrying a 1.62 ERA, and while Mets hitters own a .355 wOBA against him historically, their .284 xwOBA says the damage profile has been less convincing than the results. This is the best “steal one with swing-and-miss stuff” game on the board for New York.

Game 2: Freddy Peralta vs. Jameson Taillon
This is the one the Mets should circle. Peralta has the better line coming in, with a 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts in 21 innings. Taillon has posted a 4.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 16.2 innings. On paper, this is the cleanest starting-pitching edge the Mets have in the series, and if the offense is going to act like a serious group for once, this is the night to cash in.

Game 3: David Peterson vs. Javier Assad
This one has a “first team to calm down wins” feel. Peterson comes in with a 6.41 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, while Assad sits at 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. That usually means one of two things: either somebody finally punches through for six runs, or both starters survive because the hitters keep getting themselves out. Given how both offenses have trended in different directions, this looks like the most volatile game of the three.

Injuries that matter in this series

For the Mets, Juan Soto remains on the 10-day IL with a right calf strain and is not expected back until the next homestand, which is a huge hit to both their lineup quality and their plate discipline. Jared Young is also out after suffering a torn left knee meniscus. Jorge Polanco has been dealing with left Achilles bursitis and was set to be reevaluated April 17. A.J. Minter is on a rehab assignment and trending toward an early May return. That is a lot of offense and bullpen balance missing or compromised.

For the Cubs, the rotation and bullpen are more banged up than the lineup. Matthew Boyd is working back from a left biceps strain. Cade Horton is out for the year after elbow damage that will require surgery. Porter Hodge is headed for elbow surgery, Hunter Harvey is down with right triceps inflammation, and Phil Maton is on the shelf with right knee tendinitis. Chicago is healthier where it matters most for this series, at the plate.

My read on the series

The Mets absolutely can win this series, but it has to look different immediately. Not eventually. Not “we liked some of the process.” Immediately.

They need to make Cabrera work in Game 1, cash the Peralta edge in Game 2, and stop giving away big spots with chase swings that belong in beer league softball. Alvarez feels like the bat most likely to carry them for a weekend. Robert has a chance to do damage if he gets pitches in the zone. One of Bichette, Semien, or Polanco has to wake up, because asking the bottom half to save the whole offense every night is how you end up talking about moral victories in mid-April like a lunatic.

My prediction: Cubs take the series 2-1, but the Mets take Game 2 behind Peralta and finally show signs of life at the plate. If the Mets win Game 1 behind Senga’s splitter, then the whole tone changes. If they lose the opener and the chase issues show up again, this weekend could get ugly fast. That last part is my read, but it lines up with the current form, the injury picture, and the offensive gap both teams are bringing into Wrigley.