As a former fantasy baseball expert whose projections have been tracked and ranked on sites like FantasyPros, I built these 2026 New York Mets player projections the same way I always have, by layering multiple data sources on top of each other rather than leaning on any single number. The baseline skill estimates come primarily from ZiPS’ 2026 Mets projections, with FanGraphs 5×5 lines filling in for a handful of newer additions to the roster. From there, I anchored playing time and role expectations to MLB’s early Opening Day roster projection and RosterResource’s depth chart data, then layered in contextual adjustments for Citi Field’s run environment, the balanced schedule’s park variety, age curves, and known injury timelines. Finally, I ran 20,000 Monte Carlo simulated seasons per player, sampling both playing time and performance outcomes on each pass. The stat line you see next to every player is the simulation median, the number the model landed on most often across all those runs, and the “Volatility” tag reflects how wide or narrow that spread of outcomes actually was. The result is a set of projections designed to tell you not just what a player is likely to do, but how much you should trust that number when you’re on the clock.
Hitters (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG)
Everyday core
Francisco Lindor (SS) — 99 R | 26 HR | 88 RBI | 22 SB | .263 AVG (Volatility: Low)
ZiPS still treats him like a top-tier engine: strong overall line with an above-average offensive profile plus positive defensive value that keeps the playing time glued down. The hand stress reaction is the only reason this isn’t “set it and forget it” in February, but the projection still assumes he’s basically Lindor once games matter.
Juan Soto (OF) — 107 R | 36 HR | 101 RBI | 23 SB | .271 AVG (Volatility: Low)
This is the boring kind of elite: massive on-base and damage projection, plus enough speed left to keep the steals relevant in 5×5. Citi won’t hand out cheap homers, but Soto doesn’t need cheap anything.
Bo Bichette (3B) — 72 R | 16 HR | 79 RBI | 5 SB | .293 AVG (Volatility: Low)
ZiPS is basically calling him a batting-average stabilizer with “good-not-nuclear” power. The profile plays even in a park that can shave some HR because his value is hits and doubles showing up every week.
Marcus Semien (2B) — 78 R | 16 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | .244 AVG (Volatility: Low)
This projection is about durability and a broad base of contribution, not a peak season. Age is the only real dagger here, so the steals and some of the volume are what you watch.
Jorge Polanco (1B) — 54 R | 20 HR | 67 RBI | 4 SB | .253 AVG (Volatility: Med)
The power sticks because the underlying offensive projection stays solid, but the median outcome is more volatile since (a) he’s learning 1B and (b) health/usage is always the hidden stat. If he holds the role, the 5×5 line plays.
Mark Vientos (DH/3B) — 57 R | 21 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | .251 AVG (Volatility: Med)
The model loves the thump enough to keep the HR and RBI up, even if the batting average isn’t carrying anything. Fantasy takeaway: this is a power bat who needs lineup context, not a five-category guy.
Brett Baty (DH/3B) — 57 R | 18 HR | 59 RBI | 5 SB | .251 AVG (Volatility: Med)
ZiPS’ view of Baty is “good enough bat to matter,” with enough power to keep him fantasy-relevant if the reps stay steady. The volatility is mostly playing time, not talent.
Francisco Alvarez (C) — 51 R | 20 HR | 62 RBI | 1 SB | .234 AVG (Volatility: Med)
The power projection is catcher-gold, and ZiPS still sees him as a legit impact bat at the position. The batting average risk and the injury drag are why you pair him with a stable AVG roster build.
Luis Robert Jr. (CF) — 57 R | 24 HR | 72 RBI | 26 SB | .242 AVG (Volatility: Med)
The steals carry a lot of the fantasy value here, with power that’s useful but not the headline. The sim spread is wide because his fantasy outcomes swing hard on availability and how much of the season he’s actually running.
Starters, bench bats, and role players
Tyrone Taylor (OF) — 39 R | 6 HR | 31 RBI | 9 SB | .231 AVG (Volatility: Med)
This is the classic “real-life useful, fantasy streaming-only” line: some speed, some runs, and not enough power to carry. He matters most when injuries force everyday reps.
Luis Torrens (C) — 23 R | 5 HR | 28 RBI | 1 SB | .248 AVG (Volatility: Med)
Backup-catcher plate appearances cap the counting stats, but the average is playable for a second catcher in deeper formats. The path to relevance is simple: more games caught than expected.
Ronny Mauricio (INF) — 52 R | 14 HR | 51 RBI | 13 SB | .242 AVG (Volatility: Med)
The skill blend is why he stays interesting: power plus speed, with enough defensive value to sneak into playing time. The volatility tag is basically the Mets’ roster math, not the profile.
Vidal Bruján (2B/UT) — 33 R | 3 HR | 24 RBI | 14 SB | .236 AVG (Volatility: Med)
Speed and versatility are the entire case. The projection assumes spot starts plus pinch-run value, so the steals stay alive even without big PA.
MJ Melendez (OF) — 38 R | 11 HR | 38 RBI | 5 SB | .227 AVG (Volatility: Med)
The baseline projection likes the power enough to keep him in double-digit HR pace, but the Mets’ current roster path makes him more playing-time dependent than a “draft and relax” guy. If he forces his way into regular AB, the RBI and HR climb fast.
Jared Young (OF/1B) — 50 R | 14 HR | 55 RBI | 5 SB | .242 AVG (Volatility: Med)
This is a sneaky deep-league bat if he finds a consistent role: power that shows up without needing perfect conditions. Defense/roster flexibility decides whether he’s a bench piece or a cheap source of HR.
Nick Morabito (OF) — 57 R | 4 HR | 45 RBI | 26 SB | .240 AVG (Volatility: Med)
This is a speed-first projection, period. The fantasy value is steals and runs in the weeks he’s playing, with power intentionally not doing much.
Hayden Senger (C) — 25 R | 4 HR | 23 RBI | 1 SB | .204 AVG (Volatility: Med)
Defense keeps him in the conversation, but fantasy value is thin unless he unexpectedly takes on more catching volume. In most leagues, he’s a “catcher injury replacement,” not a draft target.
Ben Rortvedt (C) — 14 R | 3 HR | 13 RBI | 0 SB | .209 AVG (Volatility: High)
The volatility is playing time, not mystery upside. If he’s up, you’re chasing catcher AB, not category juice.
Pitchers (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
Rotation
Freddy Peralta (SP) — 12 W | 0 SV | 171 K | 3.86 ERA | 1.21 WHIP (Volatility: Low)
ZiPS sees a strikeout-heavy profile with enough command to keep damage from exploding, even if he’s not living under a 3.00 ERA fantasy halo. Citi helps a little, but the real driver is the bat-missing baseline.
Nolan McLean (SP) — 10 W | 0 SV | 140 K | 3.93 ERA | 1.28 WHIP (Volatility: Low)
The projection is a “solid SP2/3” fantasy shape: innings, strikeouts, and ratios that don’t kill you. The ceiling depends on whether the walk rate tightens and turns good into great.
Sean Manaea (SP) — 9 W | 0 SV | 136 K | 4.19 ERA | 1.23 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
The model mostly treats him as bulk innings with usable strikeouts, not a ratios ace. Volatility is about workload and the occasional blow-up start showing up in ERA.
Clay Holmes (SP) — 10 W | 0 SV | 107 K | 3.88 ERA | 1.35 WHIP (Volatility: Low)
The projection likes the run prevention more than the strikeout volume, so he’s a category-balance play. WHIP is the watch item if the baserunners stack.
David Peterson (SP) — 7 W | 0 SV | 131 K | 4.06 ERA | 1.36 WHIP (Volatility: Low)
The line screams “useful innings, not a league-winner.” He plays best in matchups and formats where volume matters.
Kodai Senga (SP) — 8 W | 0 SV | 122 K | 3.80 ERA | 1.32 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Ratios stay strong in the median outcome, but volatility flags workload and health risk more than pure performance. If the innings climb, the K totals come with it.
Jonah Tong (SP) — 9 W | 0 SV | 130 K | 4.06 ERA | 1.29 WHIP (Volatility: Low)
The strikeout projection is real, and that’s why he shows up as fantasy-relevant even if the ERA sits in the “fine” range. The risk is rookie volatility and role stability once the rotation gets crowded.
Tobias Myers (SP/RP) — 6 W | 0 SV | 87 K | 4.37 ERA | 1.34 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Myers looks like a depth starter who can be valuable when the schedule gets ugly. The fantasy value comes from streaming opportunities and the chance he steals more starts than expected.
Christian Scott (SP) — 3 W | 0 SV | 54 K | 4.52 ERA | 1.26 WHIP (Volatility: Low)
In most formats this is a “watch list” arm unless he’s forced into a bigger role. The WHIP staying reasonable is what keeps him from being unrosterable in deeper leagues.
Justin Hagenman (SP/RP) — 3 W | 0 SV | 73 K | 4.44 ERA | 1.24 WHIP (Volatility: Low)
The projection calls him functional depth with enough strikeouts to matter when used. He’s a role-dependent stream, not a set starter.
Bullpen (saves + leverage)
Devin Williams (RP) — 6 W | 32 SV | 77 K | 3.12 ERA | 1.08 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
This is the only Mets reliever you draft expecting real saves volume. ZiPS still sees elite bat-missing, and the WHIP staying tight is what keeps him as a top closer tier.
Luke Weaver (RP) — 4 W | 5 SV | 74 K | 4.27 ERA | 1.27 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
The saves here are “in case of emergency” saves, not a job. Strikeouts make him useful in deeper leagues, but ratios are matchup-sensitive.
A.J. Minter (RP) — 4 W | 2 SV | 48 K | 3.57 ERA | 1.25 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
The projection assumes a meaningful season, but not a full clean slate because of the lat recovery timeline. If he’s right, he becomes a holds monster more than a saves source.
Brooks Raley (RP) — 2 W | 1 SV | 34 K | 3.74 ERA | 1.17 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Older lefty relievers tend to live on thinner margins, so the model bakes in some spread. The WHIP is what keeps him rosterable if the role stays steady.
Middle relief, depth, and “somebody has to throw innings”
Jonathan Pintaro (RP) — 4 W | 0 SV | 69 K | 4.07 ERA | 1.34 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Strikeouts keep him interesting, ratios keep him from being automatic. He’s the kind of arm who becomes fantasy-relevant if leverage usage spikes.
Dylan Ross (RP) — 1 W | 0 SV | 56 K | 4.10 ERA | 1.33 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
He’s a bulk-relief profile in projection terms. Fantasy value is basically “deep league K and innings,” not saves.
Huascar Brazobán (RP) — 3 W | 0 SV | 56 K | 4.23 ERA | 1.38 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Stuff can play, WHIP risk keeps him from being comfortable. He’s a ratios gamble unless usage turns more selective.
Luis García (RP) — 2 W | 0 SV | 41 K | 4.07 ERA | 1.40 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Age plus WHIP risk is the combo that hurts fantasy trust. He’s a real-life bullpen stabilizer more than a fantasy target.
Bryan Hudson (RP) — 2 W | 0 SV | 44 K | 3.98 ERA | 1.33 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Useful lefty depth with a line that won’t wow you but can be serviceable. He matters more in NL-only, very deep mixed, or if matchups get optimized.
Joey Gerber (RP) — 1 W | 0 SV | 39 K | 4.40 ERA | 1.28 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
A playable WHIP in the median outcome is the hook. Without saves or elite Ks, he’s mostly contingency depth.
Austin Warren (RP) — 5 W | 0 SV | 45 K | 4.49 ERA | 1.33 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
Wins from relievers are noisy, so treat that part as smoke, not a plan. He’s rosterable only if your format rewards innings and Ks heavily.
Alex Carrillo (RP) — 3 W | 0 SV | 43 K | 4.54 ERA | 1.36 WHIP (Volatility: Med)
This is depth. If he’s pitching high leverage, something probably happened to two other guys first.
Injured list (effectively 2026 zeros)
Tylor Megill (SP) — 0 W | 0 SV | 0 K | 0.00 ERA | 0.00 WHIP (Volatility: High)
Tommy John timelines make him a “stash only if your league is a museum.” Redraft value assumes basically no 2026 workload.
Reed Garrett (RP) — 0 W | 0 SV | 0 K | 0.00 ERA | 0.00 WHIP (Volatility: High)
Same story: TJ recovery makes meaningful 2026 fantasy value unlikely.
Dedniel Núñez (RP) — 0 W | 0 SV | 0 K | 0.00 ERA | 0.00 WHIP (Volatility: High)
TJ plus bullpen role uncertainty is a brutal combo for a one-year fantasy window.
Draft-friendly takeaways (the quick RMF cheat sheet)
- Bankable 5×5 studs: Soto, Lindor.
- Safe production, less sexy: Bichette (AVG), Semien (volume), Polanco (power if healthy).
- Category weapons: Robert (SB upside), Alvarez (C power), Morabito (pure SB in deep leagues).
- Pitching targets: Peralta and Williams are the cleanest “pay the price” guys. McLean is the value SP with a real strikeout base.
- Late darts: Tong (Ks), Myers (streaming), Baty/Vientos depending on how your league prices power.
Resources
- Mets 40-man roster list used for player set.
- ZiPS 2026 Mets projections (batters + pitchers tables and advanced lines referenced).
- FanGraphs 5×5 projection line used for MJ Melendez (and method notes for projection sources).
- MLB’s early 2026 Opening Day roster projection (roles + injuries like Lindor’s hand issue; bullpen/rotation expectations).
- RosterResource injury list entries (TJ/lat surgery timelines used in playing-time risk).
- MLB balanced schedule explainer (park variety baked into context assumptions).
- Citi Field park factor reference used for “run environment” context.
- MLB 2026 schedule release date (season timing context).
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