A comprehensive analysis of David Peterson, Tobias Myers, Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, and Bryan Hudson through advanced metrics.
Through comprehensive Statcast analysis, these five pitchers each possess distinct strengths and challenges:
- David Peterson (NYM): Elite spin but lacks movement, causing hard contact issues
- Tobias Myers (MIL): Elite splitter (39.4% whiff) but declining fastball effectiveness
- Luke Weaver (BOS/NYY): Dominant changeup (43.9% whiff) with elite spin rates
- Devin Williams (MIA/NYM): Two-pitch unicorn with absurd 73% CSW rate
- Bryan Hudson (WAS/NYM): Prospect with wipeout sweeper (41.2% whiff) in limited sample
League averages (25% chase, 25% whiff) highlight just how special Weaver and Williams are as extreme outliers in CSW (Chase+Whiff ~63–73%), while Peterson and Myers sit closer to average.
David Peterson – Uneven Stuff, Needs Sharpening
The Numbers
- 4-Seam: 92.3 mph, 72% active spin, 21.6% whiff rate
- Sinker: 91.3 mph, 75% spin, only 10.6% whiffs ⚠️
- Slider: 84.6 mph, 38.0% whiff rate (best pitch)
- Curve: 78.7 mph, ~30.5% whiffs
- Changeup: 84.6 mph, 91% active spin, 24.1% whiffs
Plate Discipline (2025)
- Zone%: 49.5% (near MLB avg)
- Chase%: 28.1%
- Overall Whiff: 24.0% (roughly league-typical)
- CSW: ~52%
The Problem
Peterson’s heater holds elite spin but the vertical break has flattened. His sinker moves like an ordinary fastball, resulting in:
- 4-seam allowed .376 wOBA
- Hard-Hit rate ~47%
- Velocity dip from 93.7 to 92.3 mph in summer 2025
- xwOBA of .400 on fastballs
The Verdict
Without maxing fastball movement, Peterson needs precise sequencing and location to succeed. His slider and curve win by pitch design, when commanding them well, big whiffs follow. If not, he gives up contact and runs. He’s at a fork: either dial up vertical on fastballs or lose his roster spot.
Tobias Myers – Breaking Point Between Promise and Reality
The Numbers
- 4-Seam: 93.5 mph, 99% spin, only 14.7% whiffs ⚠️
- Splitter: 83.1 mph, 39.4% whiff (elite, league-leading territory)
- Slider: 84.5 mph, 17.9% whiff
- Cutter: 87.7 mph, 21.9% whiff
The Decline
2024’s prospect buzz decelerated hard in 2025:
- K% fell from 27.3% to 17.4%
- ERA ballooned
- Fastball: .428 SLG, 46% Hard-Hit rate
- xwOBA .419 on cutters (vs ~.379 league)
- Run values: FB cost -7 runs per 100 pitches
- Lived on unsustainable 80% strand rate
Release Mechanics
Extension ~14.6 ft (average for tall lefties), doesn’t compensate for relatively flat fastball
The Verdict
Myers needs to rediscover sink or get more vertical movement. With his size and stuff, he should induce more grounders. His superb spin efficiency (splitter ~91%, cutter ~71% active) shows the weapons are there, but 2025 data screams for adjustment. Think of him like a live bullet, useful in short bursts but hittable if overexposed.
Luke Weaver – Fastball/Changeup Ace in Reliever’s Robe
The Numbers
- 4-Seam: 95.1 mph, 96% active spin, 24.5% whiff
- Changeup: 88.1 mph, 88% active spin, 43.9% whiff (weapon)
- Cutter/Slider: 84.6 mph, 53% active spin, 30.2% whiff (used sparingly)
- Changeup putaway on 21.4% of swings
Usage Patterns
- Righties see: 59% FB, 30% change
- Lefties: eaten alive by the mix
- Slider usage: only 1.6% (minimal 12″ break)
Plate Discipline
- Chase rate: 32.8% (well above league average)
- CSW: ~64%
- K%: ~26% on FB, ~36% on change
The Secret Sauce
High-spin combination (4-seam 96% active, change 88% active) creates maximum movement. His vertical movement on fastball is small (~3.7 in total) essentially a rising fastball that hitters get under (Hard-Hit ~46%).
The Verdict
Weaver thrives on deception and mix, living between hands with FB vs change. League-average K% for LHP is ~24% he’s clearly above. If he adds another breaking ball or slight angle adjustment, he could lengthen outings. For now, he’s a high-spin super-sub with playoff pedigree.
Devin Williams – Peak Stuff, But Health is Key
The Numbers
- 4-Seam: 94.1 mph, 97% active spin (virtually all “rise”), 38.0% whiff
- Changeup: 83.7 mph, 87% active spin, 37.3% whiff (the famous “ruler”)
- Just two pitches (slider limited)
- Changeup K-rate: 31.2%
- Fastball K%: 39.3%
The Dominance
- Chase%: 35.0%
- Whiff%: 37.7%
- CSW: ~73% (absolutely crushes league average of ~50%)
- Run value: +3 runs above average in 2024–25
Release & Mechanics
- Extension: ~6.0 ft at 6’2″ (average, no extreme release advantage)
- Pure action of fastball vs change drives hitters crazy
- Changeup creates nearly 45″ drop on pitch-break leaderboard
The Verdict
Williams remains a unicorn the highest spin pitcher of his era. When healthy, he grades as max-stuff. The only risk: 2025 SLG allowed jumped as opponents adjust. At 33% chase and K% near 40%, he’s a legitimate late-inning weapon. Deploy aggressively but monitor workload.
Bryan Hudson – Wild Card Reliever Prospect
The Numbers (Small Sample – 15 IP in 2025)
- Sinker: 90.5 mph, 79% active spin, 23.7% whiff
- Sweeper: 80.6 mph, 81% active spin, 41.2% whiff (elite wipeout pitch)
- Fastball allowed .413 wOBA
- 2024 AAA: +12 runs per 100 pitches, top percentile fWAR and xFIP
The Profile
- 7ft wingspan, late-blooming lefty
- Unique delivery: 3:30 release point on sweeper
- Sweeper creates 17.2″ horizontal movement
- Extension: ~14.6 ft (strong for height)
- 2025 sample: 72% of batters were righties, zero left-handed sluggers
The Verdict
Hudson profiles as a high-variance matchup lefty with one knee-buckler (sweeper) and a heavy sinker. His Stuff+ likely eclipses 110 given his arsenal. Treat him like a coiled snake give him short leashes but high-leverage chances vs. LHB. He’s one to stash high in the bullpen on upside alone.
Key Comparative Metrics
| Pitcher | Top Pitch(es) | Avg Velo (FB) | Spin Eff (FB) | Usage% (FB) | Whiff% (FB) | Whiff% (Best Offspeed) | Chase% | CSW% | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterson | FB/Slider/Curve | 92.3 mph | 72% | 51.9% | 21.6% | Slider 38.0% | 28.1% | ~52% | .327 |
| Myers | FB/Split/SL | 93.5 mph | 99% | 45.2% | 14.7% | Split 39.4% | 27.2% | ~48% | .320 |
| Weaver | Change/FB | 95.1 mph | 96% | 59.2% | 24.5% | Change 43.9% | 32.8% | ~64% | .269 |
| Williams | Change/FB | 94.1 mph | 97% | 47.4% | 38.0% | Change 37.3% | 35.0% | ~73% | .271 |
| Hudson | Sweeper/FB | 90.5 mph | 79% | 66.7% | 23.7% | Sweeper 41.2% | – | – | – |
Context: MLB averages for 2025 include ~22% FB K%, 28% chase rate, and 94 mph average fastball velocity. CSW = chase + whiff.
Actionable Insights & Takeaways
🎯 David Peterson
Must refine his pitch plane. His sinker/FB lacking drop allows hard contact (Hard-Hit ≈48%). Lowering the slot or elevating his breaking stuff might help protect the FB. Even minor tweaks (like burying his cutter vs LHB) could swing fortunes.
🎯 Tobias Myers
High-upside reliever gamble. His splitter/slider whiff rates are gaudy, but today’s numbers scream caution. He’s likely only a multi-inning option if he figures out how to avoid long innings.
🎯 Luke Weaver
Found his mojo with two workhorses. Keep feeding the changeup and look for a third offering: the FB/change duo works, but adding a reliable breaker (sweeper?) in 2026 could vault him to late-inning upper tier.
🎯 Devin Williams
Worth the risk, health permitting. His CSW is absurd (~73%). If he’s throwing 95–98%, use him in high-leverage spots often. Keep his workload monitored—but his “spin magic” is not a fluke. He’s one of the game’s best arms.
🎯 Bryan Hudson
A sneak surprise and one of the Mets’ most intriguing new arms. That sweeper might become a cutter-inhaling weapon. Could be darkhorse weapon in 2026.
Highlights
- Peterson’s slider is nastier than his sinker. 2025 slider whiffed 38%, but his sinker only 10%. Adjust plane or pitch mix to fix that.
- Weaver’s changeup-changeup-changeup: 43.9% whiffs on what was once a fringe pitch. He’s a behind-the-scenes champion.
- Williams’s stuff = surgery on hitters’ eyes. Two pitches, 94+ mph, 97% spin—every miss is a K. He’s elite, if healthy.
- Myers’s downfall: too many first-gear fastballs. His splitter K’s a ton (39.4% whiff), but his heater is hittable. Can he mix more?
- Hudson’s sweeper: your new nemesis if you’re a LHB. 41% whiff in small sample on a pitch batters never see. Could be darkhorse weapon.
Deeper Takeaways
Movement & Spin Matter: Baseball Savant data show that pitch movement and spin efficiency matter as much as velocity. Weaver vs. Williams vs. Peterson are all ‘high-spin’ guys, but only Williams is converting spin to whiffs across the board.
Small Sample Caveats: Spring Training sample sizes are tiny, watch these five closely. Trends suggest Peterson might try a higher cutter and Hudson may debut a loopy curve. Data gaps (no MLB Statcast on Hudson’s 2025 dominance) mean we lean on Minor League grades for him.
The Human Element: Stuff+ and Statcast metrics tell one part of the story. Leadership, workload, and usage plans in 2026 will ultimately dictate who thrives. The data give us a map, but coaching will light the path.
Sources
Primary Statcast and Baseball Prospectus data for each pitcher’s 2024–25 seasons (pitch-by-pitch Statcast outputs, Statcast spin/movement dashboards, Savant plate discipline, etc.), league averages from MLB Statcast, and relevant press (APM, MLB reports on transactions). Data gaps (e.g., limited spring training data, proprietary metrics like Stuff+) are noted.
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