The Mets head to San Francisco tonight at 3-3, after dropping Wednesday’s rubber game in St. Louis 2-1 in 11 innings. Juan Soto finally got his first homer of 2026, but the bigger issue is the same one smacking Mets fans in the face all week, too many empty at-bats in leverage spots. Tonight’s matchup is David Peterson vs. Robbie Ray at Oracle Park. Peterson opened with 5 1/3 scoreless innings in his first start, while Ray enters at 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA. The NL East is already annoying, with Miami at 5-1, Atlanta at 4-2, and the Mets sitting tied with Philly and Washington at 3-3.
For the matchup layer, the useful stuff is pretty simple. Peterson’s early Statcast line shows weak contact allowed, with an 83.0 mph average exit velocity, 0.0% barrel rate, and .279 xwOBA allowed so far. Ray has more velocity, but his current Statcast line is giving up a .292 wOBA and .284 xwOBA, which gives the Mets a real chance if they stop playing offense like they’re being charged by the swing.
Syracuse already got on the board in the minors, beating Toledo 4-2 on April 1. The rest of the full-season affiliates start rolling in now: Binghamton opens April 3, Brooklyn opens April 3, and St. Lucie’s full-season schedule opens April 3 as well.
Quick Hitters
- The Mets wasted a winnable game. Freddy Peralta shoved enough, the bullpen mostly held, and Soto gave them the only real thunder. One run is not a lifestyle.
- Soto is heating, not guessing. His underlying contact numbers are fine, and the homer was more “finally” than “surprise.”
- Lindor’s patience is there, but the loud contact has to turn into crooked numbers. He already has a .417 OBP and 14.3% barrel rate, which says this thing isn’t dead, just annoying.
- Tonight is a real tone-setter. Win in San Francisco and you steady the ship. Lose, and early-season irritation starts getting louder than it should.
Mets Scoreboard
Mets Daily Wrap
The shape of this thing is obvious now. The Mets are not getting embarrassed, they’re getting nicked to death by missed offensive chances and thin margins. That’s fixable. But not if they keep treating run support like an optional accessory. Tonight against Robbie Ray is a clean reset spot. Go take it.
